Economics 101

The best economic advice that you will ever receive - maybe.

Friday, June 22, 2007

Are we in a recession? Is the housing market affecting our economy?

Well, the time has come for a new post. And although it has been several months since I last updated this blog, I wanted to write a post that I felt was crucial. Recently, word has spread that 1) We are almost in a recession and 2) The housing market slump is affecting our WHOLE economy. I would like to address all my remaining readers that I have heard many comflicting reports, therefore, I have to present my opinion based on the data I have received. When I picked up the Los Angeles Times 2 or 3 days ago, there were UCLA forecasts claiming that the we are nearing a recession and that the housing market is one of the main causes. But then, just yesterday, I pick up my newly-delivered issue of Money magazine and it says that the markets are actually undervalued despite their bullishness and that the housing market slump will probably continue for another year or so but then I read that Ben Bernanke thinks that our economy is fine. So I have concluded that it doesn't matter what any university including UCLA thinks about our economy when the Federal Reserve Chairman himself, Ben Bernake, claims that our economy is doing well. I also noticed that the S & P 500 needs to go up 18% until it more or less reaches the average value in terms of P/E and what not. And by the way I also saw a tiny article about how the defense stocks are still rallying throughout the year and don't forget to profit from earnings and acquistions. So until nest-time, good bye.

Your Stock Market Advisor

Monday, April 02, 2007

Finally, a new post!

Sorry to all the viewers of my blog. I have been busy over the past couple of months. However, now that I"m available I'd like to take the time to acknowledge a few stocks that deserve it. I think even though, Apple is already past $93 it can still go higher. Why? Because it is working with EMI to sell music on its online music store, iTunes. EMI also is the current owner of the Beatles' music and if you search iTunes, you may notice that the music store doesn't contain any Beatles' songs. If the deal goes well, we could see Beatles' songs in iTunes' future. You may want to keep an eye on the Tribune as well. I think that the newspaper company and its stock will do extremely well due to Mr. Zell's eager bidding for the company. He is willing to pay a lot of cash back to Tribune's shareholders and I think that Tribune deserves at least a hold or a buy (not a strong buy just yet). Although you should have bought True Religion at $15 about 2 or 3 trading days ago, it still is a good buy. At $16. 14, I think you could still make at least $1.50 - $3 on the stock. And I can't forget to mention Altria. Yes, we all are aware of the fact that it plunged over 20% today. But that is exactly the reason why we shou;d buy it. It did go up a tiny amount in after hours trading, and I think it can definetly make you some money. NYSE Group (NYX) was a GREAT BUY at about $80, and I think it still has room to shoot through your portfolio. I'll try to add more posts later, but until next-time good-bye.

Saturday, February 03, 2007

Some Quick Picks!

Current Buys:

The Children's Place Retail Stores (PLCE)
I see lots of growth and room to go up

Netbank (NTBK)
reached 52-week low

Whole Foods (WFMI)
near 52-week low

Starbucks (SBUX)
rather cheap
You could probably make $5-$6 per share

eMagin (EMA)
It's at a 52-week low

Saturday, January 27, 2007

Mothers Work (MWRK) a wreck!

Wow, down 20% ina matter of 2 days. I definetly hope you sold after the 14% loss. I am sos sorry about that, but I think that after a week, MWRK will be a buy because all the damage has been done. Think about it, it had the earnings shortfall and got the downgrade. There is nothing that can hurt this stock anymore. Might I mention that MWRK is the leading retailer in clothing for pregnant women. Yes, they are #1 in maternity clothes. I think that too many investors are giving up hope on this stock, way too fast. This quarter, they are supposed to grow 533%. WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Just in case you don't take my advice on MWRK, I have added a much safer buy to my buy list, Capitol One (COF). We all know about their credit cards and their wierd commercials, but few investors look at the stock. Right now it is at $79.47 and has a price taget of $95.95. There are two reasons why I am getting behinf COF. The first, is becasue it is cheap. It has a P/E of only 10.43 and a PEG ratio of 0.79. The second reason, is because COF bought back $3 billion worth of shares on Jan. 25. I think that should send the stock soaring higher. I am now going to give a quadruple buy to Whole Foods (WFMI). BUY!, BUY!, BUY!, BUY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You need to buy Whole Foods! It's at $42. 70 for goodness' sake. You need to buy WFMI. This is one of the biggest growth stories in progress. I have two other picks for you. They're both small-cap stocks, but I think that they're buys. The first small-cap stock I'm going to reccommend is Ditech Networs (DTIC). DTIC is only $7 and has a price-target of $10.16 and a 52-week high of $11.44. Even if it reaches the $10 price-target, you make 43%. The nest samll-cap stock is a global player, receiving income from regions all over the world. NMS Communications (NMSS), is only $1.86 and has a 52-week high of $5.00. I think that with the income the company is making and the fact that it is already a globally-expanded company will boost its stock, especially since it is the largest global operator footprint for ringback services and is a leading provider of applications and platforms for voice, video, and data services. I also have one more stock pick, Noble Corp. (NE). At the moment, it is $71.58 and has a price target of $98.14. The stock is pretty cheap with a P/E of 15.61 and an extremely low PEG ratio of 0.28.

Added Bonus: Just in case you want a list of some recent buybacks, I have added the link to the wbesite I inquired my information from:

Friday, January 19, 2007

Growth Picks

Well, I have been doing some research and I continue to reccommend MWRK. But I also reccommend a new stock, Rudolph Technologies (RTEC). Check out the growth rate for yourself, Just amazing! If I were an intelligent investor, I'd buy RTEC before it has its earnings on Feb. 7. I also have one more pick for next year that you should watch through 07, Thermogenesis Corp. (KOOL). These guys have a 525% growth rate for 08. I also have two other picks that Jim Cramer actually owns for his charitable trust, and surprisingly they're not at 52-week highs. His 2 picks are RIG and GSF. Both are great growth stocks, and I give you the seal of approval to BUY,BUY, BUY both now. In fact you should, because their earnings are not too far away. I wonder who saw CCI today. Crown Castle (CCI) went up $1.75 (5.08%) after the company announced that it would buy back over 17 million shares. These guys did a serious buy-back and everybody jumped in on the news. The funny thing is, I was watching them trade up only 1%-2% in the first few mintues of the trading session. Had I bought the stock, I could have made 3% or 4%. But I made a mistake, much like all humans. I'll give you another growth stock, Gray Television (GTN), and these guys have a growth rate of 480%. That's very, very good, but after this quarter you have to SELL, SELL, SELL!!! I can't guarentee that you will make a lot of money, because it is $1 away from it's 52 week high of $9, but then again, its 52-week low is $5 and change. I have another growth stock much like GTN, TVL. TVL is like GTN in the sense that it is also near a 52-week high but has a very high growth rate of 163%. The next growth stock I'm going to give you is Playboy Enterprises (PLA). We all know about their disgusting business, but let's focus on its stock. This quarter their growth rate is negative 14.3%. However, next quarter it is supposed to grow 400% and this year it is supposed to grow 500%. Next year it is supposed to grow 512.5%. I will have to do some more research on PLA, but I think that it is probably best of breed in terms of growth. I'm not done with growth stocks yet. This quarter INXI is supposed to grow 125% and this year it is supposed to grow 136.7%. As if that weren't enough, it is also supposed to grow 318.2% next year. I also see a growth player in the fashion industry cache (CACH). These guys are a player for next quarter. They are supposed to grow 63.3% next quarter. I think that besdies PLCE, CACH is probably the second-best growth player in the fashion industry. It is very hard to evaluate the fashion industry because technically speaking, there is only one true sector for it, Apparel Stores. But I guess Textile - Apparel Clothing and Textile- Apparel Footwear and Accessories do count as well. But fashion isn't like the automotive industry where you can have a bunch of different sectors: one sector is based on the people who make the engines, another is for transmissions, another is for tires, and there is one for car companies themselves. An even better comparison is tech. Tech can be divided into many thing like semi-conductor companies and computer companies. I also think Fossil (FOSL) is a pretty decent growth buy. For this quarter, their growth estimates show that they will most likely grow 48.4% and next quarter their growth rate will be at 35.7%. I'll give you another big fashion name: Guess (GES). They have a very good quarterly revenue growth of 31.3% and a gross margin of 42.82% which is even better than Gap. However, the common problem occurs. They are not too far from their 52-week high, which is why I don't know if they're company's growth will translate into $$$. I also continue to reccommend Under Armour (UA) because I think that it can still go up, especially if it has a growth rate of 212.5% for the current quarter and a growth rate of 122.2% for the year. I have a lot of faith in Under Armour because it has not had an earnings disapointment. Since December 8, 2006, insider traders of UA have bought 1,200,779. Let alone on December 8, 2006, 1,200,00 of those shares were purchased and this was only by 2 insiders. I think UA's earnings estimates are way too low and easy to beat. But we run into the 52 week high problem. I'm looking at Quicksilver (ZQK) now and I notice that next quarter's growth rate is 166.7%. And this stock, I think, is not a bad buy at the moment. Although its earnings is in March, pretty far off, they have easily beatable estimates. Now that I'm looking at growth plays, I think Boeing (BA) should definetly be considered one. They have a growth rate of 69% for this quarter and have consistenly beaten earnings estimates. I don't think that their is a better growth play for the next quarter than US Airways Group (LCC). They not only have a current growth rate of 146.5% and for the next quarter they have a growth rate of 1,260%. So you might even want to buy it now, because with earnings on Jan. 30, this stock is not going to dissapoint. If that weren't enough to make you buy this stock, (which gives me every right to ask "What are you smoking?") than its 219.5% quarterly revenue growth and 282% growth rate for this year will. I think that this year UAL Corp. (UAUA) may do well, with its 91.2% growth rate for this year, but will do even bettre next year with a growth rate of 1165.1%.

Monday, January 15, 2007

Circuit City? A buy? A growth play?

Circuit City (CC) has made one huge headline lately:
Circuit City to roll out new prototype store-courtesy of CNN Money

Circuit City is back and I think it is a buy. If you think that this year may not be the time, you might be correct. But according to growth estimates, next year holds a great year of growth for CC. I also have another very very amazing buy for investors. I still need to do more research, but I think that Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) is one of the best buys on Wall Street. Right now, they are at a 52 week low and they give a 12% annual dividend. What is to lose? You have to invest some cash into these guys. I also have another pick, and it is Catapult Communications (CATT). Now I know I'm always reminding you about the PEG ratio and how it shouldn't be over 2.0 and this stock has a PEG ratio of 2.9 but there is a good story behind it. It is nearly at a 52-week low and check out its growth rate for the next quarter and this year. If you're a conservative investor, you can wait until next quarter to buy Catapult Comm. but I give you the seal of approval to buy it now. I also want you to buy TETRA Technologies (TTI). These guys have a PEG ratio of 0.55 and check out their growth rates. They are bound to go up and I give them a triple BUY!!! They were recently upgraded on Jan. 5 by Matrix Research from Hold to Buy. They also have a one year target of $35.14. I think that potentially The Children's Place Retail Stores (PLCE) will do well. Right now it is at $58 and has a price target of $78. Imagine how much could be made even if they were $8 wrong. Here is a growth play for you, Mothers Work (MWRK). In the next 2 quarters this stock will go up a combined 833%. This stock is going to go up. They were recently updated on Jan. 5 as well. I also want to give you a stock to watch, Multimedia Games (MGAM). Next year, they are supposed to grow a whopping 2,400%.

More analysis

Well, we recently have seen what Apple could do and how it could destroy its competition and now we have to look at the competitors who will be destroyed. Research in Motion (RIMM) and Palm (PALM) will go down. I think in the short-term, Cisco (CSCO) may benefit investors, excuse me, traders. I think Cisco may have better benefits in the long-term, at least according to Cramer. However, I don't see where Cisco can grow anymore. Cisco has simply been in the market too long and is having what I call a senior period, much like waht is happening to QualComm right now. However, Qualcomm is more of a buy than Cisco, at least for the short-term, because Qualcomm has come through in the last seven earnings dates. I told you to buy True Religion (TRLG) at $14-15 and it went all the way to $17.83 before it went down 71 cents on Friday. But I should have reccommended these guys big time because the all their head-honchos were buying back their own stock. On January 2 alone 317,00 shares were bought back by members of the insider roster. Funny thing is, Jan. 2 wasn't a trading day, and the marklets were closed for the former president's, Gerald R. Ford. funeral. Anyways, the stock has gone up a great deal and I think it can go up even more. I also think that Best Buy and Whole Foods should be bought. Yahoo has gone up more than 8% in the last month and still has some room to grow. Starbucks isn't a bad buy either, but should have been bought earlier this week when it was at $34. :Let's take a quick look at Motorola and Apple. Motorola is not going to grow unless they can come out with a few cellphones that can produce a buzz much more than the iPhone. I was reading the Los Angeles Times not too long ago, and the front page article on the business section besides Apple getting sued by Cisco was that the iPhone will not produce a global buzz, and focused largely on how the Japanese viewed the iPhone as "business as usual." Japan is already very advanced, as far as technology goes, that they could care less about the iPhone. They can already buy concert tickets off of their cell phones, so how does the iPhone advance thier interest, better yet their market, any further? Don't get me wrong, the iPhone will do very, very, very well and will advance not only the consumer's perception toward Apple but advance the American market (and sales records) as a whole In America, nothing can compete with it. In Japan, it's a joke. However, Motorola is doing better globaly. But Samsung is ultimately dominating the advanced Asian market. I can't give Apple a buy at the moment because it has gone up so fast. But the iPhone isn't out just yet (even though the buzz is), which gives the stock time to fall a little bit. Apple probably will go back to $90, if not the high-80s, but you shouldn't expect Apple to be where it was 2 or 3 weeks ago. Hansen Natural (HANS) has been performing rather well and the stock has gone up from$24.88 to $38, a gain of 15%. But I think that it can still go higher. Jones Soda has done well recently and it is time to sell. Looking at their growth rates next year, they may be a buy at the beginning of the 4rth quarter this year, but at the moment they are a sell. I think that Electronic Arts (ERTS) is also a sell. I think that based off of this year's growth estimates that Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) can do well, but their PEG ratio is just creeping me out. They have a 1.9 PEG ratio, which is just short of the 2.0 limit Cramer (and I) set for buys. Remember, if the PEG ratio is more than 2, there is always going to be a better buy out there. Under Armour (UA) could also go up based on insider transactions, many of which were acquisitions of the stock on January 3. I have found a stock, don't buy it but do some research of your own on it, Blue Holdings (BLUE). These guys are a small-cap fashion competitior of TRLG and they have room to grow, maybe not this year, but next year. However, I don't think we'll see such a cheap price from these guys next year.

Friday, January 05, 2007

Sell JMBA!!! + Cramer's 3 growth stocks + a fashion pick from me

Well, I'm sorry for those of you who bought JMBA. At least, if you bought it at about $10-$11. There aren't any analyst reccommendations I can turn to, better yet, blame, but I do think that you will get your money's worth. This thing should at least go back to $11. But I wanted to inform all my viewers about the 3 top growth picks from Jim Cramer for 2007. Check them out the following sites:
(only the 3rd and 2nd growth pick are on the first link)
(the first growth pick for 07 is here)

Remember that these are according to Cramer, even though I agree with him all the way. Now I promised a fashion pick and I'm going to give it to you.This is a bit of a risky play and I'm going to reccomend it to you even though it was downgraded numerous times at the begininng of November. I'm reccomending True Religion Apparel (TRLG). These guys are the next big mover in the fashion & apparel industry. I think you buy them now, maybe hold onto them for 1-3 years, and you made a hefty profit. Check them out, and as Jim Cramer says, "Do yoyr homework!" You need to do your homework on these guys. These guys have a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E for all of you advanced players out there) of 15.80, which means that they are very cheap. And to double check that they are cheap, you check out their PEG, which is basically the same measurement (measurement of price), except it's telling you if you're getting your money's worth for a company's growth. Remember that if the P/E is over 20, you will get slaughtered in a time of a recession, if you have a P/E ratio of 30 you're making a risk if you buy the stock at any time, and if your over 40, you may even have a good stock, just know when to sell. Really if you know how/when to sell, I don't care if you buy a stock with a P/E of 75 (even though, you should be pretty cautious with a stock like that). These guys have a PEG of 0.55 which is perfect. If it is over 2.0, then you should be a bit worried. The PEG should be taken a bit more seriously, at least if you feel like bending the rules. If you want to buy a stock that has a PEG higher than 2, you shouldn't even look at that stock because their is a much better one to buy, especially if you're looking for a stock in a particular industry. I also think that the distance between the stock's current price and its 52-week high is enough for it to go up. I think that True Religion is the way to go. There is only one minor problem that you shouldn't think about too much, but think about it nonetheless. True Religion is being copied and could go out of style tomorrow, or realistically in a few months. I think that True Religion is on the verge of a complete breakaway and upward trend so just think about this a little bit. Thank you to all my loyal readers and I hope that you don't even need my luck and best wishes (even though I do offer them to you) to make money.