Economics 101

The best economic advice that you will ever receive - maybe.

Monday, January 15, 2007

More analysis


Well, we recently have seen what Apple could do and how it could destroy its competition and now we have to look at the competitors who will be destroyed. Research in Motion (RIMM) and Palm (PALM) will go down. I think in the short-term, Cisco (CSCO) may benefit investors, excuse me, traders. I think Cisco may have better benefits in the long-term, at least according to Cramer. However, I don't see where Cisco can grow anymore. Cisco has simply been in the market too long and is having what I call a senior period, much like waht is happening to QualComm right now. However, Qualcomm is more of a buy than Cisco, at least for the short-term, because Qualcomm has come through in the last seven earnings dates. I told you to buy True Religion (TRLG) at $14-15 and it went all the way to $17.83 before it went down 71 cents on Friday. But I should have reccommended these guys big time because the all their head-honchos were buying back their own stock. On January 2 alone 317,00 shares were bought back by members of the insider roster. Funny thing is, Jan. 2 wasn't a trading day, and the marklets were closed for the former president's, Gerald R. Ford. funeral. Anyways, the stock has gone up a great deal and I think it can go up even more. I also think that Best Buy and Whole Foods should be bought. Yahoo has gone up more than 8% in the last month and still has some room to grow. Starbucks isn't a bad buy either, but should have been bought earlier this week when it was at $34. :Let's take a quick look at Motorola and Apple. Motorola is not going to grow unless they can come out with a few cellphones that can produce a buzz much more than the iPhone. I was reading the Los Angeles Times not too long ago, and the front page article on the business section besides Apple getting sued by Cisco was that the iPhone will not produce a global buzz, and focused largely on how the Japanese viewed the iPhone as "business as usual." Japan is already very advanced, as far as technology goes, that they could care less about the iPhone. They can already buy concert tickets off of their cell phones, so how does the iPhone advance thier interest, better yet their market, any further? Don't get me wrong, the iPhone will do very, very, very well and will advance not only the consumer's perception toward Apple but advance the American market (and sales records) as a whole In America, nothing can compete with it. In Japan, it's a joke. However, Motorola is doing better globaly. But Samsung is ultimately dominating the advanced Asian market. I can't give Apple a buy at the moment because it has gone up so fast. But the iPhone isn't out just yet (even though the buzz is), which gives the stock time to fall a little bit. Apple probably will go back to $90, if not the high-80s, but you shouldn't expect Apple to be where it was 2 or 3 weeks ago. Hansen Natural (HANS) has been performing rather well and the stock has gone up from$24.88 to $38, a gain of 15%. But I think that it can still go higher. Jones Soda has done well recently and it is time to sell. Looking at their growth rates next year, they may be a buy at the beginning of the 4rth quarter this year, but at the moment they are a sell. I think that Electronic Arts (ERTS) is also a sell. I think that based off of this year's growth estimates that Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) can do well, but their PEG ratio is just creeping me out. They have a 1.9 PEG ratio, which is just short of the 2.0 limit Cramer (and I) set for buys. Remember, if the PEG ratio is more than 2, there is always going to be a better buy out there. Under Armour (UA) could also go up based on insider transactions, many of which were acquisitions of the stock on January 3. I have found a stock, don't buy it but do some research of your own on it, Blue Holdings (BLUE). These guys are a small-cap fashion competitior of TRLG and they have room to grow, maybe not this year, but next year. However, I don't think we'll see such a cheap price from these guys next year.

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